The Houston Texans face a critical home opener on Monday night as they attempt to avoid falling to 0-2 before beginning a three-game stretch that includes two divisional games and a trip to Baltimore.
It’s the first game of Monday night’s doubleheader to conclude Week 2, and Tampa Bay arrives in Houston looking to become the NFC South’s lone 2-0 team.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Texans are consensus 2.5-point favorites, thanks primarily to playing at home.
The Bucs have drawn 60 percent of the spread-line money wagered at BetRivers, while Tampa Bay’s +120 moneyline has been backed by 54 percent of the money along with 68 percent of the total bets.
PROP PICKS
–Bucs QB Baker Mayfield Over 15 Rushing Yards (-155 at DraftKings): This has been the game’s most popular player prop at the book after Mayfield scrambled five times for 39 yards in the season opener, making him the team’s leading rusher. Mayfield is anything but a run-first quarterback, having compiled 378 yards all of last season. However, he has now topped 15 yards in five of his past six games, including the playoffs.
–Over 43.0 Total Points (-112 at BetRivers). The Over has drawn 73 percent of the money and 76 percent of the total bets. While Tampa Bay’s season opener totaled exactly 43 total points, Houston lost 14-9 at the Rams.
KEY STAT
Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans has scored a touchdown in eight of his past nine games played on Monday nights, while Texans wide receiver Nico Collins has scored at least one touchdown in seven of his past eight home games.
SERIES HISTORY
The Texans hold a five-game winning streak over Tampa Bay.
PRESSURE MOUNTING ON STROUD
Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was sacked three times and pressured on more than 41 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1, perNextGen Stats,. Houston remains a work in progress in terms of providing suitable protection for Stroud. Their vulnerability will be challenged again considering the Bucs pressured Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. on more than 43 percent of his dropbacks in Week 1.
“Their front, it really comes from Todd’s philosophy,” said Texans coach DeMeco Ryans, referencing Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles. “They’re going to bring a lot of exotic pressures. There will be pressure from safeties, nickels, everybody is coming and … they do a really good job of disguising it. We just really have to do a great job as an offense when the picture changes. How are we reacting and responding?
“Communicating the proper way when the picture changes, that will be the challenge for us this week,” Ryans added.
With Stroud under extreme duress, Collins had only three receptions (on five targets) for 25 yards against the Rams. Far and away the Texans’ top option in the passing game, Collins stands a superior shot of being unlocked if the Texans execute better on offense.
“Offensively, when you go back to the game on Sunday, we have so many plays where we’re playing behind the sticks and we’re not doing things that we’re trained to do,” Ryans said. “We’re not doing things that are conducive to staying on track, and being able to run our offense in that type of fashion, it’s going to be hard to get the ball to a certain player here or there.
“We’ve got to do the things that we’re coached to do, make sure we’re staying on track offensively, making sure everybody is on the same page, and we’re putting ourselves in position to make positive plays. When we have those positive plays, then it opens up the offense for us to be able to get the ball to whoever we want to get the ball to.”
INJURY REPORT
Bucs left tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee), a two-time first-team All-Pro, did not practice on Saturday and was ruled out for Monday’s game. So, too, was wide receiver Chris Godwin Jr. (ankle), who was limited on Saturday after missing sessions Thursday and Friday.
Bowles revealed right tackle Luke Goedeke (foot) played through injury on Sunday and he didn’t practice Thursday and Friday but was limited on Saturday and listed as questionable. Safety Christian Izien (oblique) and cornerback Benjamin Morrison (quad) were full participants all week and listed as questionable for Monday’s tilt.
Tampa Bay and Houston are both seeking a measure of normalcy up front. The Texans announced Saturday that center Jake Andrews (ankle), after missing practice on Thursday through Saturday, was ruled out for the game. Also ruled out are wide receivers Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk, both to hamstring issues.
“They’re shuffling just like we are,” Bowles said earlier in the week. “Right now, we’re just trying to get our feet under us. It’s not about advantages, it’s about us taking care of us and playing fast.
“Whatever they have, they have; whatever we have, we have. We’ve got to go down there and try to win the game no matter what.”
PREDICTION
The Bucs take to the road for the second consecutive week and a win in Houston would position them nicely atop the NFC South. With the Texans minus injured running back Joe Mixon and lacking a consistency ground game to alleviate some of the pressure on Stroud, Houston will find itself playing out of too many obvious passing situations. –Bucs 27, Texans 23
